DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY
“when demand exceeds supply, quotas mathematically require lowering standards.”
The Lesson
Design is destiny in systems. When demand for qualified candidates from any category exceeds supply, requiring quotas mathematically guarantees hiring below the bar. Managers optimize for measurable short-term goals (diversity numbers) over hard-to-measure long-term goals (competence). 'Try harder' is magical thinking-at scale, the math wins. This applies to any constrained pipeline: if you need X people with qualification Y and only X/2 exist, either you lower the bar or miss the target. The solution is always expanding the supply (better education), not wishing the math away.
Real-World Example
A founder needs 50 senior engineers with a specific rare skill. Only 25 exist in their market. HR says 'try harder.' The founder explains: 'Math doesn't care about effort. We either train people up, relocate candidates, or lower the bar. Pick one.' They invest in training programs. Two years later, supply meets demand. The pipeline problem was never about effort-it was about math.
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